Uncategorized » In Brief: Topical Short Takes » Advice & Life Lessons

Forgive Yourself For Your Misadventures

Someone said this to me a while ago, I wish I could remember who, but it’s helped me deal with a lot of adverse circumstances.

A lot of us are going through hard times right now, and I’m sure a lot of people, like me, are feeling helpless. But there is one thing you can do for yourself pretty easily, even when you can’t seem to change your situation:

You’ve got to forgive yourself for your misadventures.

That one piece of advice has helped me a lot. Because even when you can’t change a negative circumstance, it’s all too easy to internalize it: blame yourself, think you somehow deserve it, Identify with it as if it’s a part of you.

This advice has often helped me reframe things so I don’t take them personally, making it easier to carry on. Something really bad happens? It’s not “me“. It’s…

Uncategorized » In Brief: Topical Short Takes » AI

AI Doesn’t Innovate

2024nov25 — I was really struck by this tagline on Canva's new 2025 design report, saying "motion elements, dreamy textures, and AI innovation" would shape new design possibilities.

As an AI skeptic—which is to say, I'm extremely optimistic about the things AI has proven it does very well, and the things it's given strong indications it's moving towards really doing well, but deeply impatient with all the hype about speculative functionality outside of those—this really put a fine point to me on part of the problem. Not with AI, but with what people expect of it, what they spend money expecting it to do.

AI DOESN'T INNOVATE. AI is specifically engineered NOT to innovate. It specifically attempts to create something that matches what it previously ingested. If it deviates from that, innovates, we call that "hallucination", and it makes AI less useful, not more. This is because AI is…

Uncategorized » These Are The People In My Neighborhood

My Laconic Roommate Jim

My laconic roommate Jim was the quickest wit in the west. I lived with the guy for about 10 years, and he never said much, but when he did, it always counted.

I got my first taste of this when I came to interview for the room and meet the roommates. We were all musicians, so the subject came up. I mentioned I was a Jethro Tull fan, talked about a few of the concerts. Jim, who hadn't said much during the interview so far, said, "I always pictured a Jethro Tull concert as being something like a cross between a Dead show and the Renaissance Faire." Which wasn't much, but it was astute, and I noticed it.

Jim just turned 39. The day before his birthday, a friend of his asked him what he planned to do for it.

"Well, my favorite bartender gets on at 4…

Uncategorized » In Brief: Topical Short Takes » Techno-Sociology

Kupietz’s Law Of Infoavailability

Where technology is concerned: "Information needs expand to fill available bandwidth."

Where we used to have to fill in a one-page form, when automation arrived to make it quicker for us to fill in that form, very soon a ten-page form was required.

Reference: AI’s False Time-Saving Promise. Or Why AI Is Like The Vacuum CleanerBy Martin Gutmann, forbes.com, Nov 11, 2024. An article about how new "time-saving" technologies, such as vacuum cleaners, then computers, email, and now AI, increased workloads rather than reducing them.

Also tangentially related is Jevons Paradox, in which technology that increases efficiency creates an overall increase in resource consumption, rather than a decrease.

Ideological Musings

Satire: “Traffic Lights” and the Left’s Destruction of American Mobility

(Satire, people. This is satire. I actually had someone not get that.)

If there's one thing I'm opposed to, which I think represents a very wrongheaded tendency in our society, it's this: traffic lights.

First off, just on basic principles: this nation was founded on an ideal of freedom, and yet somehow, we got to the point where the government is telling me when I can stop or go?!?

But it's not just the principle, I'm not just an ideologue: my real concern is because it's a very practical issue. The ill effects of traffic lights are a prime example of how the unintended consequences of well-intentioned overregulation can result in broad negative effects for everybody they're supposed to be helping.

Traffic patterns should be determined by free competition between the traffic participants, so nothing stands in the way of the best drivers getting where they…

ImportedFromAP » Free Scripts & Algos Even Though You Probably Don't Deserve It
Crossing detector (feat. 2-field date/time entry demo)

Crossing detector (feat. 2-field date/time entry demo)



var tradingview_embed_options = {}; tradingview_embed_options.width = '640'; tradingview_embed_options.height = '400'; tradingview_embed_options.chart = 'izM2anXV'; new TradingView.chart(tradingview_embed_options);

ApopheniaPays Crossing detector & 2-field date/time entry by ApopheniaPays on TradingView.com

TradingView Script. Free TradingView account required to use. Direct link: https://www.tradingview.com/script/izM2anXV-ApopheniaPays-Crossing-detector-2-field-date-time-entry/

A demonstration created by request.

You specify a horizontal line by value, start date/time, and end date/time, and choose a data source (bar close is the default) and it will label count how many times that source crosses that line between those dates/times.

"Crossing type": count only crossing up, crossing down, any cross, or any touch at all. "Any touch" ignores the source you specified in the first input, and triggers if any part of the candle at all is touching the specified value.

BONUS DEMO FEATURE: Enter the start and end dates for your horizontal line as MMDDYY and HHMM (24…

ImportedFromAP » Free Scripts & Algos Even Though You Probably Don't Deserve It

Range Strategy demo



var tradingview_embed_options = {}; tradingview_embed_options.width = '640'; tradingview_embed_options.height = '400'; tradingview_embed_options.chart = 'vQmYyTp5'; new TradingView.chart(tradingview_embed_options);

AP Range Strategy on TradingView.com

TradingView Script. Free TradingView account required to use. Direct link: https://www.tradingview.com/script/vQmYyTp5-ApopheniaPays-Range-Strategy

A very simple demo, made by request, to allow a user to set simple buy and sell levels and see how profit changes as you mover them.

ImportedFromAP » Free Scripts & Algos Even Though You Probably Don't Deserve It

AP VWWMA/Volume-Adjusted Price lines 5.4.2 shared alpha



var tradingview_embed_options = {}; tradingview_embed_options.width = '640'; tradingview_embed_options.height = '400'; tradingview_embed_options.chart = 'Hgjz7wXW'; new TradingView.chart(tradingview_embed_options);

AP VWWMA/Volume-Adjusted Price lines 5.4.2 shared alpha on TradingView.com

TradingView Script. Free TradingView account required to use. Direct link: https://www.tradingview.com/script/Hgjz7wXW-AP-VWWMA-Volume-Adjusted-Price-lines-5-4-2-shared-alpha/

Initial alpha release, just for you to play with. No warranty, guarantee, support.

-----

This is an alpha of one of my most frequently-used custom indicators, provided without support or guarantees, for anyone to experiment with: the Volume Double-Weighted Moving Average and Volume-Adjusted Price Lines.

WHAT TH' HECK ARE ALL THESE LINES?

Yellow/reddish line: VWWMA. Essentially a VWMA , but built on a WMA rather than an SMA . A very frequent target for brief mean reversions.

Blue line: WMA . If you look at movements of the VWWMA compared to movements of the WMA , it will tell you how much of an effect volume…

ImportedFromAP » Free Scripts & Algos Even Though You Probably Don't Deserve It

AP Risk Management Assistant 20-02-25.01 shared alpha



var tradingview_embed_options = {}; tradingview_embed_options.width = '640'; tradingview_embed_options.height = '400'; tradingview_embed_options.chart = 'cviFZ4S5'; new TradingView.chart(tradingview_embed_options);

AP Risk Management Assistant 20-02-25.01 shared alpha on TradingView.com

TradingView Script. Free TradingView account required to use. Direct link: hhttps://www.tradingview.com/script/cviFZ4S5-AP-Risk-Management-Assistant-20-02-25-01-shared-alpha/

Initial alpha release, just for you to play with. No warranty, guarantee, support.

-----

A word about the "regretted sale" features:

BUYBACK SPOT PRICE AFTER 'REGRETTED' SALE:

This is the level at which you will lose the same amount by having sold and bought back in as if you had simply held without selling. If you buy back at this level after a regretted sale, whenever you sell again, you will make the exact same profit or loss as if you had not made the regret sale. And every dollar below this price that you buy back in, is a dollar more profit you would have…

ImportedFromAP » Free Scripts & Algos Even Though You Probably Don't Deserve It

Demonstration of how chart history length affects current EMA values



var tradingview_embed_options = {}; tradingview_embed_options.width = '640'; tradingview_embed_options.height = '400'; tradingview_embed_options.chart = 'NwvUwIQ3'; new TradingView.chart(tradingview_embed_options);

Demonstration of how history length affects all EMA values on TradingView.com

TradingView Script. Free TradingView account required to use. Direct link: https://www.tradingview.com/script/NwvUwIQ3-Demonstration-of-how-history-length-affects-all-EMA-values/

I saw some discussion of this so I whipped up an example to prove the that effect of history length on EMA values is pronounced, even for bars much further than the EMA length away from the first candle of the chart.

This chart has two 89-bar EMAs of the close: a green one and a red one. However, for the red one, the first 89 bars of the graph are considered to have a close of "0", which is exactly whatTradingView's EMA calculation uses for bars before the start of the graph.

This is because unlike other moving averages, which reference the price…

ImportedFromAP » Free Scripts & Algos Even Though You Probably Don't Deserve It

Reminder Message (w/ color picker demo)



var tradingview_embed_options = {}; tradingview_embed_options.width = '640'; tradingview_embed_options.height = '400'; tradingview_embed_options.chart = 'KLNJvOaF'; new TradingView.chart(tradingview_embed_options);

Reminder Message (with color picker) - ApopheniaPays on TradingView.com

TradingView Script. Free TradingView account required to use. Direct link: https://www.tradingview.com/script/KLNJvOaF-Reminder-Message-with-color-picker-ApopheniaPays/

This is a very simple script. It displays a message above the latest price. I coded it because I need a constant reminder to keep me from overtrading.

You can customize several options:
- The message text
- How high above the latest price the message is displayed
- How often it is displayed. 1=display constantly, 2=only show it during every other period, 3=only show it every 3rd new period, etc. So, for example, if you are on the 15 minute chart, and set a frequency of 3, it will show it for the first 15 minutes out of every 45.
-…

Ideological Musings

Ideology in Brief: Are You Free?

You're permanently confined to a bed because someone has shackled you to it with iron chains. Are you free?

You're permanently confined to a bed because someone surreptitiously slipped you a paralyzing drug, which is preventing you from moving. Are you free?

You're permanently confined to a bed because someone is standing there threatening your life with a gun to prevent you from moving. Are you free?

You're permanently confined to a bed because you are immobilized by an incurable, debilitating illness. Are you free?

You're permanently confined to a bed because you are immobilized by a debilitating illness, which is curable but which you were not able to afford the treatment for. Are you free?

You're permanently confined to a bed and you don't know why. Are you free?

Ideological Musings

Conflict and Division: One Root Of Fractiousness—the Role of Government

Reading an interesting and wide-ranging article on political analyst David Shor (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/08/opinion/democrats-david-shor-education-polarization.html) I came across the following passage:

"[Shor] and those who agree with him argue that Democrats need to try to avoid talking about race and immigration. He often brandishes a table showing that among voters who supported universal health care but opposed amnesty for unauthorized immigrants, 60 percent voted for Obama in 2012 but 41 percent voted for Clinton in 2016. That difference, he noted, was more than enough to cost her the election.

"This can read as an affront to those who want to use politics to change Americans’ positions on those issues. “The job of a good message isn’t to say what’s popular but to make popular what needs to be said,” Shenker-Osorio told me.

"Shor’s rejoinder to this is that the best way to make progress on race and immigration policy is…

Misinformation Visualization

The Infinity Razor

Draft - never published

This is an old favorite of mine that I'm glad to see survives in some form on the web. Close to 20 years ago, The Economist ran an article where they noted an interesting trend: https://web.archive.org/web/20181120231744/https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2006/03/16/the-cutting-edge

They noted that in it was over 70 years after King Gillette invented the disposable safety razor before marketing geniuses invented the Trac II, with two blades. Only slightly more than 20 years later, the triple-blade Mach3 debuted, followed shortly by the four-blade Quattro and even sooner by the 5-blade Fusion.

Where their analysis departs from the more pedestrian studies of the subject is the rigor with which they analyzed the trend. By two different curve-fitting methodologies, they found that at the very least, by a simple power law curve, by 2100 we'll be shaving with 14-blade razors. However, by the best curve-fitting, the data appears to…

Misinformation Visualization

More than Coincidence? The Bushes, the CIA, an inexplicable disease cluster, and a TV show

Draft - never published

Over the course of the persidency of George H. W. Bush, both he and first lady Barbara Bush developed Graves' disease, a form of lupus. Doctors estimated the odds of a husband and wife both developing this uncommon and noncommunicable disease at around 1 in 3,000,000. https://web.archive.org/web/20130508015248/http://www.nytimes.com/1991/05/28/science/the-doctor-s-world-a-white-house-puzzle-immunity-ailments.html

In 1990, the Bushes' dog, Millie, was diagnosed with lupus: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-09-06-mn-1274-story.html

Preceding that, in 1966, Bush left private business and was elected to his first Federal position in the House of Representatives, then subsequently the Senate. In the early seventies, President Richard Nixon had appointed Bush to chair the Republican Party. From there Bush briefly served as a liaison and effective embassador to China, before being appointed by Gerald Ford as director of the the Central Intelligence agency.

The CIA is a spy agency.

In 1966, the same year Bush began his government…

Misinformation Visualization

Online Petition Gets Murder Conviction Overturned

Originally posted on Misinformationvisualization.com on 12/9/2013.

According to Change.org’s current homepage:

Family wins release of son from prison! Ryan Ferguson’s family fought for his release from prison for a murder they say he didn’t commit. Ryan’s father, Bill, started a petition asking for Ryan to be freed, and after 250,000 signatures, Ryan’s conviction was overturned.”

Ferguson was convicted in 2005. His father started an online petition on change.org to get him a new trial. in 2013, after 250,000 signatures, the two main witnesses against him recanted their testimony under oath, and his conviction was overturned!

It would be interesting if we could test and determine exactly how many petition signatures is the critical number necessary to get a murder conviction overturned, and whether the petition caused the witnesses to recant, or whether the petition alone would have been sufficient to get the conviction reversed even…

Misinformation Visualization

How To Pick A Better Password

Originally posted on Misinformationvisualization.com on 12/2/2013

Buried in this interesting article about password security from the BBC is the tidbit that studies have found that red-haired women tend to pick the most secure passwords; “men with bushy beards or unkempt hair, the worst.”

So for maximum security, always ask a red-haired woman to pick new account passwords for you.

Misinformation Visualization

Election ’12 fact-finding: Has Obama Increased or Decreased Shark Attacks in the US?

Originally published on MisinformationVisualization.com on Aug 18, 2012

Here’s something Romney’s attack ads refuse to discuss. According to figures from the nonpartisan American Elasmobranch Society and the Florida Museum of Natural History, under the policies of George W. Bush, the US had an average of 65% of the world’s shark attacks, dipping below 60% only in 2004, when John Kerry was running. For the first three years of Barack Obama’s presidency, the US average dropped to only 43% of the world’s shark attacks. (Paul Ryan has a plan to end shark attacks by chumming the swimming waters with meat and fresh blood, but Romney has been distancing himself from it.)

Please come back, as we will be exploring this data in greater detail in upcoming posts.

Ideological Musings
Against Libertarianism, Almost

Just A Dab’ll Do Ya: Against Libertarianism, Almost

Foreword about "Against Libertarianism", 2023

I wrote this, originally a blog post, about 10 years ago. Nowadays I have more to say about this, but for the moment this stands with minor editorial revisions but significantly as I originally posted it. As per my Terms & Conditions nothing on this site should be construed as conveying my current (or even past) beliefs, and although I still do agree with most of what I said here, this post is to me, today, a starting point for kicking off discussion, not the final word on it.

I do have some further thoughts which I will get written down and posted at some point, and without which my full views on Libertarianism cannot be said to be expressed. There is a solution: Libertarianism could maaaaaaybe conceivably work, but there's another side of the story, which nobody…

Uncategorized » In Brief: Topical Short Takes » Persuasion, Manipulation & Propaganda

You’ll love this entry.

I've finally nailed what bothers me so much about those Upworthy headlines. It's that they they tell you what to think about about the video, instead of telling you what it's about.

Uncategorized » In Brief: Topical Short Takes » Language, Grammar, & Vocabulary

The most suggestive term in telecommunications

The 90 days after the creation of a new area code in which either the old or the new code may be used to dial that area is called the permissive dialing period.

Uncategorized » In Brief: Topical Short Takes » Futurism & Prognostication

In Heaven, Everything Is Fine

I have an idea about what happens after you die. I think when you go to heaven, St. Peter lets you in, they show you to a room. You take a sauna, somebody brings you a plate of cookies or a slice of cake. Then you take a nap.

Later on, when you're ready, they take you to a huge room, and everyone you've ever met is there. And everybody gets together and tells each other exactly what was going through their fucking heads. Then you all have a good laugh about it all. I see lots of back slapping and smiling eyes.

Wouldn't that be a great thing to look forward to?

Uncategorized » These Are The People In My Neighborhood

These are the people in my neighborhood: Allison

Fly Bar, Alamo Square
[My eccentric neighbor Allison walked into a bar where my friend Brent and I were sitting at a table near the door and I called out to her.]

Me: [to Brent and Allison] Do you guys know each other? You both live in the neighborhood.
Brendan: No.
Allison: I don't think so. You might have seen me around the neighborhood. I always walk around with a little dog. [pause.] ...I used to walk around with a little dog. He died three days ago.
Me: Oh, I'm sorry to hear that.
Allison: Yeah, he was sick for a while. A few days ago I could tell, it was the day, so I put him out in the backyard and he curled up in the grass... I went out for a while, and when I got back... ...
Me: I'm really sorry.

Uncategorized » These Are The People In My Neighborhood

These are the people in my neighborhood: Allison II

Front stoop of my apartment, day after Thanksgiving, 11/25/05
As I was arriving home, my eccentric neighbor Allison was just leaving her building.

Allison: [waves at me]
Me: Oh, hey, how ya doing?
Allison: Good. How 'bout you?
Me: Good!
Allison & me: [awkward pause while I hunt for something else to say.]
Allison: Thank you!
Me: [pause] uh... you're welcome!
Allison: Thanksgiving, and all.

Ideological Musings

A step towards understanding (instead of) violence

I’m a big believer in personal responsibility and people being accountable for their actions. That said, there’s only so long you can do something to people that they perceive as unjust before they lash out. It's as certain as a natural law.

It's true even if only they think you're acting unjustly to them. If people don’t understand that or don’t care, violence will continue.

This also allows both sides in a conflict to believe, with moral certainty, that the other side started it.

Complicating the issue is that violence as a means to an end, even as an attempt to end injustice, is bound up within the larger issue of what violence, for any reason, is: a forceful attempt to achieve one's goals when someone else's goals stand in the way. Sometimes this is completely successful against the very weak, but most often what violence primarily accomplishes is socially…

Ideological Musings
weathered decrepit supple gossamer diaphanous god. opalescent angels and devils. Maxfield Parrish. HR Giger. Extremely detailed, cluttered. Messy. Scary. Memento Mori. Insects. Religion. 3

The Most Evil Words

I think "fuck 'em" are the most evil two words, the worst thought, in the English language.

Maybe they're not terribly evil, said once, by themselves. But no words are. Catastrophic evil is a compound phenomenon.

"Each snowflake in an avalanche pleads not guilty."
-Stanislaw J. Lec

Uncategorized » In Brief: Topical Short Takes » Language, Grammar, & Vocabulary

Vocabulary: That Vu That Yu Du So Well

Déjà vu: a false sense that something new has been seen before
Jamais vu: a feeling or impression that something familiar is unfamiliar or is being seen for the first time, like when you repeat a word so many times that it suddenly loses meaning and sounds alien
Presque vu: the illusory sense of having something on the tip of your tongue, or that a mental epiphany or breakthrough is about to occur

I wonder if the French have a word for the strange feeling that something wonderful has just happened, but you don't have any idea what?

Uncategorized » In Brief: Topical Short Takes » The Human Experience

Like Butter

You know, it's funny... the other day I just plugged in a backup hard drive that I haven't used in about 4 years. I looked at all the stuff was working on again, none of which I have thought about since and most of which I hadn't even remembered, and realized, "Wow, that was a really long time ago."

So I think the frequently-noted sensation of time seeming to pass more quickly as you get older has more to do with how often we think of something. The more often you think of something, the more recent it seems; but be reminded of something actually relatively recent but which you haven't thought back on even once since it happened, and the full weight comes to bear of just how long it's been, just how much time has passed since things that were even far more recent than long-ago things that…

Uncategorized » In Brief: Topical Short Takes » Futurism & Prognostication

Man’s Fate: Stone antennae waving

Link: A Geologist Investigates a Mass Extinction at the End of the Permian Period

A friend commented on the above as a warning.

Well, I do believe we need not to treat the world like an infinite resource, or to assume we can't push things past the tippng point, but the good news is, the Permian extinction event was both unusually catastrophic and very fast as these things goes... it took only about 60,000 years, or, roughly 12x as long as recorded human history. And whatever happened, it was very bad — the trilobites had ruled the world for nearly twice as long as the dinosaurs would when, in a geologic blink of an eye, they, along with 96% of the other plant and animal species living at the time, vanished forever. But despite it, 250 million years later, here we are, in full flower, and…

Uncategorized » In Brief: Topical Short Takes » Philosophy & Wisdom

The Advice For All Seasons

An Eastern monarch once charged his wise men to invent him a sentence, to be ever in view, and which should be always true; in all times, and in all situations; in sadness, and in happiness; in adversity, and in prosperity.

After a lengthy period of debate amongs themselves, at last they presented him with the words:

"If you lived here, you'd be home by now."